Theory about Kaworu's intentions.

[Bagheera]

So, does Kaworu only _think_ that Wille put the choker on because they thought Shinji was responsible for 3I, or does he actually know for certain that a large percentage of humanity thinks Shinji is responsible?

It's not like he's living in a bubble. He's presumably witnessed everything that happened after he arrived, same as everyone else, and would know the same things Joe Citizen would (in addition to his own secrets). If the bulk of humanity thinks Shinji's responsible for 3I there's no reason he wouldn't know this (though how anyone outside of Nerv/Seele/Wille would even know Shinji's name is another matter).

[ElMariachi]

(though how anyone outside of Nerv/Seele/Wille would even know Shinji's name is another matter).

Remember that Shinji was a celebrity in Tokyo-3, for example everyone in his school knew that he was Unit 01's pilot.
Now what would be important is to know if the everyman know that EVA-01 was the responsible for N3I.
But still that doesn't tell us if Kaworu said that the whole mankind know about his involvement in N3I, or just WILLE/NERV/SEELE.

[Bagheera]

Remember that Shinji was a celebrity in Tokyo-3, for example everyone in his school knew that he was Unit 01's pilot.

But how many outside his class had any idea? It's not like Nerv went public with the info when he spilled the beans.

[Stillborn]

But how many outside his class had any idea? It's not like Nerv went public with the info when he spilled the beans.

Try to stop people from spreadding gossip. Especially if they have a reason to resent gossip target.

[Bagheera]

Try to stop people from spreadding gossip. Especially if they have a reason to resent gossip target.

You think all of humanity's gonna know who Shinji is 'cause of gossip?

[ElMariachi]

You think all of humanity's gonna know who Shinji is 'cause of gossip?

Well, he was the pilot of one of the three giant machines that routinely saved the world by defeating giant physique-defying alien monsters, so... yeah, there is a good chance that most of the world knew who Shinji was.

[Bagheera]

Well, he was the pilot of one of the three giant machines that routinely saved the world by defeating giant physique-defying alien monsters, so... yeah, there is a good chance that most of the world knew who Shinji was.

I dunno. It seems a fair argument for Japan (particularly after Yashima), but I'm not sure about parts beyond. Maybe everyone should know, but the media doesn't seem to be a part of the equation in any iteration of Eva.

[ElMariachi]

I dunno. It seems a fair argument for Japan (particularly after Yashima), but I'm not sure about parts beyond. Maybe everyone should know, but the media doesn't seem to be a part of the equation in any iteration of Eva.

Evangelion has always been an extremely Japan-centric story, the only image of a foreign country we ever saw is the Nevada desert when EVA-03 flew off for Japan, so we don't know how other countries are faring or what means of communications still exist(we don't even know if Internet got the same tremendous growth as our world with 2I), but even then I think that some journalist must be in the city where all these insane events take place, from here a journalist just have to interview people, and soon the names of Shinji Ikari and Rei Ayanami will come back often.

[Nyanlathotep]

There's also the possibility that Kaworu simply hung around at Neo-Nerv headquarters forever and didn't know or care to know what most of humanity thought. Maybe he thinks most of the remainder of humanity is Wille; or it's just another case of angelic humanoids preferring to speak in universal rather than personal terms.

Either way, I doubt the remainder of humanity is unaware of Shinji, unless world lines of communication were shattered by Third Impact. It's not like Antarctica, where nobody lives there and you can pass it off as a meteor.

... not that the multicolored vortex at the bottom of the Earth could really ever pass for a meteor impact site but hey.

[ElMariachi]

Maybe by "the others" Kaworu meant everyone in WILLE who know his implication in N3I and not the rest of humanity, that wouldn't be the first time he's vague in his explanations...(although the fact that the whole crew of the Wunder control bridge glared murder at him suggest that they knew too, so maybe the information of Shinji's implication isn't that secret, Sakura too seems to know it, but she's her medical officer so that's normal)

As for the cover-up story with the meteor impact, I don't think they tried it this time, a little too big to work!

[DarthGendo]

Gentlemen!
Regarding spears and what effect they had on Kaworu's expectations.
I now see the difference between a pair of LoL and a Lol + LoC.
LoC would have killed the 12th Angel. 2 LoL wouldn't.
Wille didn't expect 12th Angel to be alive too.
12th Angel + Eva-13 = 4th Impact. Lances are redundant.
That is in line with SEELE's plan.
Kaworu expected a Cassius' Lance. He expected that Gendo will betray SEELE. This betrayal meant that the Impact will follow Gendo's scenario - Instrumentality. Then Kaworu would have given the control to Shinji.
INSTEAD it was Gendo who fooled Kaworu by strictly following SEELE's plan - RETURN OF ALL SOULS TO THE CHAMBER OF GUF. That's why SEELE was so content with the outcome!
Upon realizing the threat of impeding mass suicide, Kaworu sacrificed himself.

[ElMariachi]

That's an interesting theory, that would put Gendo's treachery and manipulation skills on a Light Yagami level!

But unfortunately Instrumentality is what SEELE wanted : in NME HIP isn't merging all the souls at the "beginning"(the Black Moon and Chamber of Guf) like it was in NGE, but to "evolve" mankind into a new godly specie blessed with the Fruit of Life, and Kaworu said that it was a rite planned since "immemorial times", and as SEELE are immortals and hanging around since millennia, he was surely referring to them about the instigators of Instrumentality and not Gendo.

SEELE was content with the outcome because they didn't had any idea that Gendo tricked them and that Kaworu was on his way to his demise.

As for the LoC, I don't think it would have killed the 12th Angel : Kaworu said that the two spears "morphed into the same shape", that means that the LoC was used against the 12th Angel, and then somehow morphed into a LoL. Besides an awakened EVA-13 was necessary for everyone's plans, Kaworu, Gendo and SEELE : to use the spears on a world scale(be it for Instrumentality or a terraforming Impact), you need an Impact, to have an Impact you need an awakened EVA, and for that it needs to absorb an Angel.
When everything was over, Gendo said that they managed to "awake EVA-13 and get rid of SEELE's boy", and that it should do for now. Besides he was very adamant on awakening EVA-01 before Mark.06 before the time skip, that clearly means that an awakened EVA-13 is also necessary for Gendo's plans.
Whatever happened, everyone(except WILLE and Shinji) expected the 12th Angel to still be alive inside Mark.06, so the LoC wasn't meant to kill it, but to seal it for the moment they could use it to awaken their ADAM(EVA-13)

Finally, Gendo never intended to launch "his" Instrumentality that day : whatever his plans are, they include the use of the Key of N, the fact it's still on its case at the end of the movie means clearly that Gendo's objectives in 3.0 were only to get rid of SEELE, their "boy" and awake EVA-13, the spears don't even seems to be useful in his final plan. So in my opinion, the LoL and LoC combination is what SEELE and Kaworu expected, and the fact it morphed into another LoL was Gendo's doing(or at least he knew that it would happen and didn't informed SEELE or Kaworu of it)

[DarthGendo]

But unfortunately Instrumentality is what SEELE wanted

First, SEELE and Gendo had different visions of instrumentality since NGE. They just name it that way.
I believe that's the case in Rebuild.

Second, we aren't entirely sure that the catastrohic event of the timeskip was an attempt at realisation of SEELE's plan.
I highly suspect that the 12th Angel, like all his predecessors, tried to merge with Lilith. He couldn't just blast through NERV's defences as he's more like an infection (Iruel, Bardiel). He infiltrated NERV using Mark-06 most likely. With no Eva-01 around, NERV's defences were severely crippled. That, by the way, may be another reason why people are so angry at Shinji. Like, "Why couldn't you reawake then like you did in space?!"

SEELE was content with the outcome because they didn't had any idea that Gendo tricked them and that Kaworu was on his way to his demise.

I thought this way too at first, but this argument falls apart since Fuyutsuki explicitly says that everything went according to SEELE's scenario.

Kaworu said that the two spears "morphed into the same shape"

I don't recall him saying anything like that. Quote?

Whatever happened, everyone(except WILLE and Shinji) expected the 12th Angel to still be alive inside Mark.06

What about Kaworu? You have a proof that he knew that Angel was alive? Then why so terrified when Shinji pulls the spears out? Could it go any other way?
When 12th Angel was released, it was too late for Kaworu. You see the acceptance and grief on his face. He realized that he was tricked.

As for Gendo's intentions,
At no point did I say that he intended to start the Instrumentality. He tricked Kaworu into thinking that he did.

[pwhodges]

I don't recall him saying anything like that. Quote?

It's amazing how much this bit of dialogue is ignored.

{Kaworu} Both Spears have morphed into the same shape.

Unless this is total throwaway -- doubtful -- it means that the Spear of Cassius turned into a Spear of Longinus. No convoluted switcheroos using secret passages or anything like that -- just an unexplained metamorphosis.

He says it when he realises.

[DarthGendo]

He says it when he realises.

Maybe that means there was no Cassius to begin with.
Lances tend to change their shape. Remember EoE.
Kaworu and Wille could have been led to believe that was Cassius when in fact it wasn't.
SEELE planned this ahead. They've put 12th Angel into stasis so they could use it as they please next time they aren't fighting a massive opposition of tanks, VTOLs, Evas and Failures of Infinity.

[ElMariachi]

I thought this way too at first, but this argument falls apart since Fuyutsuki explicitly says that everything went according to SEELE's scenario.

Kozo said that nearly everything went as SEELE expected, that's an important nuance.

What about Kaworu? You have a proof that he knew that Angel was alive? Then why so terrified when Shinji pulls the spears out? Could it go any other way?
When 12th Angel was released, it was too late for Kaworu. You see the acceptance and grief on his face. He realized that he was tricked.

And how was he gonna use those two spears to "repair the world"? Without an awakened EVA, these things are just shiny EVA and Angel one-shooters, they don't have any terraforming powers, they control what have terraforming powers : the awakened beings and the impacts they trigger.
He was terrified that Shinji pulled out the spears because he knew that his plan, whatever it was, was fucked the moment he noticed that there wasn't any LoC to go with the LoL, and that if the process is started without these two, any hope to bring Shinji happiness would fall apart.
When the 12th Angel was detected, we saw Asuka and Shinji freaking out because she thought that it was dead and he didn't know that there was one here... but Kaworu said nothing, nor looked surprised.

As for Gendo's intentions,
At no point did I say that he intended to start the Instrumentality. He tricked Kaworu into thinking that he did.

In the preview for Final, it is said that Instrumentality is about the be launched, Gendo is the only bad guy standing, do the maths. He just don't want the same version of instrumentality than SEELE.
Although I admit that NTE's previews have an history of being inaccurate at best and outright lying at worst...

[pwhodges]

Maybe that means there was no Cassius to begin with.

Well, we simply don't know how the spears got into Lilith; but we do know that Kaworu arrived on Earth at the end of 2.22 wielding a Cassius, so he certainly knows there was one around somewhere.

[DarthGendo]

Kozo said that nearly everything went as SEELE expected, that's an important nuance.

Yes, a nuance easily explained by the fact that SEELE didn't expect their plan to fail.

And how was he gonna use those two spears to "repair the world"? Without an awakened EVA, these things are just shiny EVA and Angel one-shooters, they don't have any terraforming powers, they control what have terraforming powers : the awakened beings and the impacts they trigger.

Isn't it exactly what I was saying?
Lances are redundant to the rite of Fourth Impact.
They just keep 12th Angel down.

He was terrified that Shinji pulled out the spears because he knew that his plan, whatever it was, was fucked the moment he noticed that there wasn't any LoC to go with the LoL, and that if the process is started without these two, any hope to bring Shinji happiness would fall apart.

That's cool and all, but could you give us a more unambiguous explaination? Because, according to you lances do jack. Without 12th Angel tied into the formula, the abscense of LoC doesn't make any sense.

In the preview for Final, it is said that Instrumentality is about the be launched, Gendo is the only bad guy standing, do the maths.

I thought we were talking about the events of Q.
It's like you have fun contradicting youself.
First, you don't read my post and say that Gendo had no plans with Instrumentality in Q.
I agree.
Then you try to disprove me, saying Gendo will eventually try to pull out Instrumentality. So what?

[ElMariachi]

Isn't it exactly what I was saying?
Lances are redundant to the rite of Fourth Impact.
They just keep 12th Angel down.

That's cool and all, but could you give us a more unambiguous explaination? Because, according to you lances do jack. Without 12th Angel tied into the formula, the abscense of LoC doesn't make any sense.

The lances do jack without an awakened Evangelion, once the Impact starts, they serves to control what the Impact will do. It's the exact same thing than in NGE : SEELE wanted the LoL to keep Lilith in check when they will start Instrumentality, that's why when Gendo got rid of the spear, SEELE had to use the B plan, EVA-01 which is made from Lilith's flesh.
In NME an Impact without any lance produce a giant clustefuck like N3I, an Impact with a lance is controlled and have specific effects depending of what lances are implicated :
- 2 LoL : mass killing of humans
- 1 LoC + 1 LoL : restoration of the planet(according to kaworu), and Instrumentality possible

That's it, that's no more complicated than that : the lance are just giant control rods and brakes for Impacts, doubled with neat weapons, but can't bring any changes by themselves.

I thought we were talking about the events of Q.
It's like you have fun contradicting youself.
First, you don't read my post and say that Gendo had no plans with Instrumentality in Q.
I agree.
Then you try to disprove me, saying Gendo will eventually try to pull out Instrumentality. So what?

Effectively, when you said :

At no point did I say that he intended to start the Instrumentality. He tricked Kaworu into thinking that he did.

I thought that the "Instrumentality" you were talking about was SEELE's Instrumentality... anyway yes it is possible that he made Kaworu though that Gendo planned to double-cross SEELE and start his version of Instrumentality the same day, while in fact Gendo was still waiting for the right moment.
But I'm still sure that the Impact with two different spears was SEELE's plan(and Kaworu's, only that he wants to put Shinji on the front seat) while the fact the LoC morphed into a LoL was the doing of Gendo(or at least he knew that it morphed and didn't informed SEELE and Kaworu)

[DarthGendo]

Maybe you're right and Lances do act like moderators for Impacts.
Still, what we get in Q with 2 LoL is what SEELE actually wanted and Kaworu apparently didn't.
+ LoC morphed into LoL.
= SEELE and Gendo knew that, Kaworu didn't.
Question: who doublecrossed who?